Barrick Gold has long been seen as a bellwether for the mining sector, and recent research from UBS indicates that this giant may be on the cusp of an extraordinary resurgence. Analyst Daniel Major’s decision to upgrade Barrick from neutral to a ‘buy’ suggests a radical shift in market sentiment. Shares, which are already up over 14% this year despite a floundering S&P 500, suggest investors might be waking up to the deeper value buried beneath surface fluctuations. This is not just a stock recovery; it’s the end of an era where Barrick was trapped in the shadows of its own missteps and overly cautious growth assumptions.
Value Underrated: A New Perspective
The analysis highlights a critical point: Barrick’s valuation metrics remain deeply understated, especially considering recent operational hurdles. The current depressed EV/EBITDA multiples reflect an overreaction to transient production struggles, according to Major. This scenario creates a significant opportunity for earnings acceleration, especially when most analysts are still slow to revise their targets. A stock that bears the weight of skepticism could quickly pivot, given the right catalysts, making it both a gamble and a calculated risk worth taking.
2025: A Year of Growth and Resilience
Major’s assessment that 2025 should be viewed as a turning point is not merely optimistic but grounded in fiscal realism. With expectations set so low, a simple recovery in operational performance could translate to outsized gains for shareholders. The gradual restart of operations in Mali, once considered a liability, could become a beacon of profitability, serving as a potential springboard for Barrick. This isn’t just about operational rebounds; it’s about fundamentally resetting investor expectations in a market that has long demanded more conservatism than creativity.
The Copper Factor: An Untapped Goldmine
While gold remains the primary focus, the narrative isn’t complete without acknowledging copper’s role in Barrick’s growth plan. Major anticipates a significant contribution from copper, shifting from a mere 10% in 2024 to over 30% by 2030. This diversification not only enhances the resilience of the business model but also aligns with global energy transitions that favor copper’s central role in renewable technologies. Failure to see this transition is a failure of investing acuity, as copper could provide the stronghold for Barrick well into the next decade.
A Wholehearted Call to Action
Barrick Gold’s metamorphosis isn’t based on frivolous optimism; it is a well-researched investment opportunity waiting to be seized. Notably, the Wall Street analyst divide—where nine of 17 recommend strong buy ratings—hints at an inflection point, where the tide could suddenly turn, leading to massive upsides for those who act now. With Major’s insights, it’s clear that this is a drilling ground for strategic investments, and the clock is ticking. It’s time for investors to retake their positions before the window closes and the gold rush redefines our expectations once again.